ODM Succession Thought: Simba Arati’s Moment or ODM’s Turning Point?
Simba Arati looks set to take over Raila Odinga’s ODM, just like Kijana Wamalwa once took over Jaramogi’s Ford Kenya. But the big question is — will ODM survive beyond Kisii after 2027, or collapse like Ford Kenya did after 1997?
ODM’s future depends on three things:
1️⃣ Whether the ODM NDC endorsing Arati will be consultative or chaotic like Ford Kenya’s Thika NDC in 1995.
2️⃣ How Arati treats the next “Juogi-anointed” Luo kingpin — with respect and inclusion, or dismissively like Wamalwa treated Raila.
3️⃣ Whether Arati leads ODM into post-2027 government coalitions or drags it back to Opposition maandamanos (which is a no-go zone now).
If ODM fails on any of these, many of us will exercise our freedom of association and move on — forming a new “NDP” for the 2032 elections.
And for those asking about Edwin Sifuna — remember, Luos already gave Bukusus a political party (Ford Kenya), which now dominates Bungoma, Kanduyi, and even Sifuna’s own Sangalo Ward. Time to be satisfied.
#ODM #SimbaArati #RailaOdinga #KenyaPolitics #2027Elections #PoliticalTransition
