By Leo Nyabaya.
In December 2020, Morocco, Israel, and the United States signed a landmark Joint Declaration in Rabat, marking the normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel and the U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The agreement, as seen in the official document signed on December 22, 2020, outlined commitments to open liaison offices, establish direct flights, and expand cooperation across trade, technology, and security sectors.
Now, imagine a parallel scenario unfolding today: Israel formally recognizing Somaliland’s independence a move that would challenge decades of international consensus on Somalia’s territorial integrity. While hypothetical, such a recognition would echo the diplomatic complexity and geopolitical balancing act seen in the 2020 Rabat Declaration.
Diplomatic Context: Pragmatism Meets Recognition Politics
The 2020 Joint Declaration was rooted in a trilateral bargain. Morocco normalized ties with Israel, while the U.S. under President Donald Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a territory long disputed with the Polisario Front. The agreement was framed as a step toward regional peace and economic cooperation, with Morocco reaffirming its commitment to the Palestinian cause and Jerusalem’s special status.
In contrast, an Israeli recognition of Somaliland would likely emerge from a different set of motivations. Rather than a U.S. -brokered trilateral deal, it would be a unilateral or bilateral diplomatic maneuver by Israel, possibly aimed at expanding its influence in the Horn of Africa and countering Iranian or Gulf rivalries. Somaliland, which has operated as a de facto independent state since 1991, seeks international legitimacy a recognition from Israel could be both symbolic and strategic, but without the same multilateral framework that underpinned the Morocco-Israel normalization.
International Reactions: Endorsement vs. Isolation
The Rabat Declaration benefited from U.S. endorsement and was part of the broader Abraham Accords momentum. Many Western nations cautiously welcomed the normalization aspect, even if they avoided endorsing the U.S. position on Western Sahara. The African Union, however, remained divided, as the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty contradicted long-standing AU principles on decolonization and self-determination.
In the Somaliland scenario, international reactions would likely be far more polarized. The African Union and the Arab League could almost certainly condemn the move, reaffirming Somalia’s territorial integrity. The United States and European Union might distance themselves, wary of setting a precedent for secessionist movements. Israel could find itself diplomatically isolated in Africa, reversing some of the goodwill it has built through normalization agreements with Morocco, Sudan, and others.
Regional Implications: Stability vs. Fragmentation
The 2020 declaration, emphasized “peaceful and friendly relations,” “economic cooperation,” and “regional stability.” It was framed as a win-win for all parties Morocco gained diplomatic recognition of its territorial claim, Israel expanded its normalization network, and the U.S. strengthened its strategic foothold in North Africa.
An Israeli recognition of Somaliland, however, could likely have destabilizing effects. It could inflame tensions in the Horn of Africa, embolden separatist movements elsewhere, and strain Israel’s relations with key African partners like Ethiopia and Kenya, who value regional stability. Unlike Morocco’s case where normalization was tied to a broader peace narrative — Somaliland’s recognition would be seen as a challenge to the international order rather than a contribution to it.
Symbolism and Strategy
Both cases share a symbolic dimension: recognition as a diplomatic currency. In 2020, recognition of Moroccan sovereignty was exchanged for normalization with Israel a calculated trade of legitimacy and influence. In the Somaliland scenario, Israel’s recognition could similarly serve strategic interests, potentially securing access to the Red Sea and countering adversarial influence in the region.
Yet, the difference lies in legitimacy. The Rabat Declaration was anchored in a trilateral framework with a superpower’s backing and a peace-oriented narrative. Somaliland’s recognition, absent such multilateral support, would be a bold but risky assertion of realpolitik.
The 2020 US-Morocco-Israel Joint Declaration stands as a carefully orchestrated diplomatic achievement that balanced recognition, normalization, and regional stability. A hypothetical Israeli recognition of Somaliland’s independence, while sharing the theme of recognition diplomacy, would unfold in a far more volatile context one where the pursuit of strategic advantage could come at the cost of international consensus.
Both scenarios underscore a timeless truth in international relations: recognition is never just about borders it is about power, legitimacy, and the shifting architecture of global alliances.
